Super Bowl XLV Predictions

Cousin Money Mike

After the NFL Pro Bowl and NHL All Star games this past weekend we focus our attention on the big game Sunday. A national holiday; Superbowl Sunday. Superbowl XLV Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers. The Steelers came into the playoffs as AFC North Divisional Champs with a regular season record of 12-4. After receiving a first round bye they edged their divisional rivals Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round 31-24. By the way the Steelers were down 14 at the half. Pittsburgh defeated the New York Jets in the AFC championship game 24-19. The Steelers play a physical style of football. They pound the ball on offense and have the ability to throw the ball for 500+ yards on any given day just ask the Packers. The Steelers heavily re lie on their number ranked defense led by all pro Troy Polamalu. The NFC champions have been playing with their season on the line for the past 5 weeks. Needing wins in their final 2 regular season games against the New York Giants and Chicago Bears and winning them both. They got in the playoffs as the 6th seed and beat Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild card round 21-16 thanks to a Truman Williams interception late in the game. A lot of people thought that was the end of the road for the Packers as the heading into the arguably the best team in the NFL at the time Atlanta Falcons. in a rout the Packers beat the Falcons 48-21. Packers then squeaked by their divisional rivals Chicago Bears 21-14 to advance to the Superbowl courtesy of a Sam Shield's interception.

Passing Game: 

Aaron Rodgers vs Steelers Secondary

 Aaron Rodgers is coming into his own right now. Though he was slowed down by the Bears in the NFC championship he still has the advantage against the Steelers. The one flaw the Steelers have in their defense is giving up the big play. They are vulnerable in the deep passing attack. Who remembers Stevie Johnson dropping the 50 yard bomb in overtime? Who was that against o yes the Steelers. Or how about Mark Sanchez throwing a 45 yard pass to Santonio Holmes getting the Jets back into the game in the AFC championship. The big play will be there for Rodgers if he can connect with any of his recievers.  

Ben Roethlisberger vs Packers Secondary

The Packers secondary has been a huge strength of theirs throughout the season. They have made big play after big play all season long. Can do it for one more game? Let's remember the Packers are not facing a fading Mike Vick, or a Matt Ryan who hasn't won a post season game, or a Jay Cutler who had first winning season since high school this year. Roethlisberger is a much bigger and better than all 3 of those quarterbacks. He makes the big time throw. Big Ben is similar to Derek Jeter when it comes to postseason play. He is almost coming automatic late in games in the postseason. Roethlisberger is 10-2 in the postseason and yes he has 2 Superbowl wins.

Decision:

Despite how much Rodgers in the zone this year I can not give him the edge of Roethlisberger because of his post season play

Edge: Even

Running Game:

James Starks and Brandon Jackson vs Steelers front 7

Much is being made of James Starks becoming the running back Packers have been looking for all season long. I ask why? Starks had one good game against the Eagles when he rushed for 123 yards. He rushed for 66 yards against Atlanta and 74 against the bears. Green Bay has found an average running back playing on a team with a great quarterback who has given Starks chances because of the threat of Rodgers. However, if Starks and Jackson can pose a threat watch out Steelers fans it can turn into a rout. I don;t seeing that happen as the Steelers are number 1 this year against the run.

Rashard Mendenhall vs Packers front 7

Mendenhall has carried the ball 324 times this year for a total of 1,273 yards and 13 touchdowns. Including the postseason Mendenhall has had 18+ carries in 13 games this season. Expect a heavy dose of Mendenhall. If the Packers can not stop Mendenhall they will be playing right into the Steelers game plan of keeping Rodgers on the sideline and creating short and manageable for Big Ben.

Wide Recievers:

Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings are the big play threats. Keep your eye on those two as this game develops. Rodgers and Roethlisbeger both do a great job of spreading the ball around. If you were to take out both Wallace and Jennings the Packers have the deeper receiving corps.

Edge Packers

Defense:

It is hard to just give the Steelers the edge in this one because the Packers are not far behind. But I am going to. The Packers have guys who they picked up are nobodies. As spectacular as Sam Shield's has been who is he? Undrafted guy out of Miami. There is a reason he was missed by 32 teams 7 times. Everyone in the league needs help in the secondary. I think the Packers inexperience shows in a big game. I am not a big believer in giving a team an advantage because they have experience because at the end of the day experience means nothing its a game of football. But if someone can explain to me how all these guys are achieving who are nobodies please explain because I'll listen. My reason is they are overachieving. It is time it is going to come to an end.

Front 3

In a 3-4 defense that both teams run regularly the linemen are designed to clog up the middle and let the linebackers make the tackle. The edge goes to the Steelers as they are first in the run defense.

Edge: Steelers

Linebackers:

Can we get a better match-up of linebackers? Woodley, Farrior, Harrison,Timmons vs Matthews, Hawks, Bishop, Walden. Harrison and Matthews are to to big play linebackers for each team. When push comes to shove I would rather have the Steelers 4 linebackers.

Edge:Steelers

Secondary:

The Steelers have the Defensive Player of the Year in Troy Polamalu, but the Packers bunch is an overachieving group and have ex DPOFY in Charles Woodson. I have to give credit when credit due and I give the Pack's secondary a lot of credit for what they have done carrying this team and bailing them out time after time making big time plays.

Edge Packers

Special Teams:

If this game comes down to field position you have to go with the Packers. The job Tim Masthay did against Devin Hester and an outstanding special team unit in the NFC championship was remarkable. He was hands down the MVP for the Packers in that game. Like so many quarterbacks and coach's say. They have to win the battle of field position. There are not a lot of 80+ yard drives in the league. And I wouldn't expect any in this game with the two defense that will be out on the field this Sunday.

Coaching:

This is a no brainier. Mike Tomlin is a coach every player wants to play for. He gets the most out of his players and does a great job getting his players through adversity. Although you cannot take away what McCarthy has done with a injured/banged up team this year taking them to the playoffs. Mike McCarthy was quoted saying," We are going to treat this like a regular season game." I understand what he is trying to do in downplaying the game trying to calm his players down. But the bottom line is it is not a regular season game. This is what every team's goal is at the beginning of the season. This is the Superbowl Coach McCarthy, you better pull out everything you need to win this game. Maybe give Sean Payton a call and ask him if it was the regular season game if he would have tried that onside kick last year to start the 2nd half that changed the entire game.

Edge Mike Tomlin

Outcome:

I am just going to say it I DON'T LIKE THE PACKERS....AT ALL. My heart wants the Steelers to win by 70. But I am going to give my best non bias opinion. Steelers 20 Packers 16. I think it is going to come down to Packers not going to be able to get into the end zone enough. And the Steelers improve to 7-1 all time Superbowl's. And by the way Mr.Jackson you can count on a couple texts if the Packers lose. So if they lose I suggest turning off your phone because my drunk texts to you after your team goes down probably wont go well for our friendship. Good Day sir.

PS GO STEELERS GO

SteamboatJackson

How sweet it is to be writing this post with my team, the Green Bay Packers, in the Super Bowl and not their arch-nemesis Chicago Bears in the big game. I would like to thank all the Bears fans that gave me shit leading up to the game and then none of them respond that day when the shit was returned. Hey Cousin Mike you still have those bags packed to go the Super Bowl because maybe the trip to Indianapolis next year is a little more suitable for the Chicago Bears and their fans. Actually thinking about it I think your magic run this year won't be duplicated next so just put that suitcase away for 10 years or so.

Without further ado here is the break down of the positions. I going to do a point system that ranks out of a total of 10 points with each team getting a certain amount for each side.

Offensive Line

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line took a big hit this past week with the news that Maurkice Pouncey will be out of the big game. Which is the most important position on the offensive line because they are responsible for making all the blocking scheme calls. His back-up is Doug Legursky will get his first career start in the Super Bowl. So in a game where everyone has talked about how much experience the Steelers have they lack it at the second most important offensive position. The Packers don't fair much better with rookie Bryan Bulaga having to face either LaMarr Woodley or James Harrison at the snap of the ball. Bulaga's play has been getting increasingly better it is still a major worry. Chad Clifton has been banged up all year and is getting older with each day but his experience does give some comfort. Neither line is all that impressive with the Steelers line getting the advantage in the running game but that could change drastically with Pouncey out. So with neither team is all that impressive, partly because the QBs are so good at avoiding the rush, the edge goes to the Packers 5.5 to the Steelers 4.5.

Defensive Line

The defensive line debate is a difficult one in the 3-4 because a lot of what these lineman do doesn't show on the stat sheet. First Brett Keisel is a man and I will be buying 'Respect the Beard, Fear the Diesel' shirt. The Steelers have an average age of 31 with the rotation that they have up-front. Age and experience can be good but in terms of old guys getting pounded on by three-hundred point linemen for 10 plus years in the NFL makes your body deteriorate. It will be interesting to see if experience pays off or the less aged Packers offensive linemen have a little more spring in those legs. The Packers have more weight up-front with Ryan Pickett and B.J. 'The Freezer' Raji. That's right Fridge move over; and on a quick side-note while the Packers don't have a Walter Payton in the backfield, the running-backs will be running ball. In one of the saddest notes of the Bears '85 season of not letting Payton get a touchdown in the only Super Bowl he would play in. Back to this years issue at hand up-front with these big boys it is going to be Steelers with 6 to the Packers 4.

Running Backs (Fullbacks)

While it has been a glaring weakness that the Packers have not been able to run the ball well since Ryan Grant went down in Week 1 things have turned around slightly. While James Starks isn't Ryan Grant nor is he Rashard Mendenhall he is a big strong back that falls forward and finishes all his runs. Another intriguing factor is the fact that he hasn't had to endure the hits that running-backs take during a full 16 game schedule. Brandon Jackson is a good 3rd down screen back but he is to soft a runner in my opinion. Additionally the Packers fullbacks have been stellar in these playoffs often running the inverted wishbone. The Packers just faced a very tough run defense against the Chicago Bears and still managed 120 yards rushing while actually running the ball more than passing. I do not think that is how the Packers will attack the Steelers but I do think they will keep a pretty steady mix of the two. Rashard Mendenhall had a great season that I enjoyed into the Championship of my fantasy football league. He finishes a lot of runs strong and has learned to hold onto the football after struggling with that his first few years. Mendenhall had a few this season and also had one this postseason. Towards the end of the season he also seemed fatigued and started to have poor games towards the end of the season. So in a surprise pick I am calling this one only a 6 to 4 advantage to the Steelers based on the regular season. While Stark is a relative unknown I think his freshness will pay off and actually think he will out-rush Mendenhall in this game.

Linebackers

The linebackers Gods are smiling about these two line-backing cores. With the likes of Butkus, Lambert, and Nitschke and many more smiling and licking their chops about the talent these two teams boast. These linebackers are what make QBs lose sleep at night. Both teams have a variety of blitzes that stunts the rushing linebacker off the edge. Clay Matthews comes from a blood lineage that is amongst the NFL's finest and his ability to get after the QB is a true delight to watch. The real credit has to go to one man for these fine Green Bay linebackers and the name is Kevin Greene. Kevin Greene was a great player that thrived in the 3-4 defense and that has transitioned into early success as a linebackers coach. He has helped a lot of the young Packers linebackers get better from last year to this year and they kept getting better as the year went on. The Steelers have the big names that everyone knows with Harrison, Woodley, and Farrior. Harrison and Woodley get after the QB as well as two linebackers can and I'm sure they just say lets meet at the QB. Even better than those two guys though is the leadership that Farrior has over this Pittsburgh D. Leadership can't be taught and it just as important as the skills that some players possess, Farrior is no longer a top elite linebacker in terms of speed but his second to none. The edge here is Steelers 5.5 to the Packers 4.5.

Wide Receiver/ Tight End

I'm going to straight honest right from the beginning saying that the Packers have the edge here. Hines Ward is to the Steelers what Donald Driver is to the Packers so they cancel. Mike Wallace is what Greg Jennings is to the Packers except Wallace is more down the field where Jennings can do more all over the field so Jennings gets the advantage. After that the Packers have James Jones who is a big receiver that can stretch the field and Jordy Nelson is a one of the best possession receivers in the NFL with great hands and ability to move the sticks. Andrew Quarless is not as good as Heath Miller but he doesn't have to be because the Packers have such a deep receiving core that they often go four wide-outs rather than 3 wide-outs and a tight-end. The Packers defense has had trouble throughout the season at guarding the TE but I would prefer that they make him beat them and make the Steelers sustain drives than letting Mike Wallace score on a long TD. The edge is to the Packers 6.5 to the Steelers 3.5. Strong rankings but I just think that there is to much for the Steelers to focus on because Rodgers shares the ball to well.

Defensive Backs

The Steelers have the best defensive player in the league Troy Polamalu, according to the voters of defensive player of the year. So with the best player on the defensive side of the ball the edge would have to go to the Steelers right? Not so fast because the Packers secondary has been amongst the best in the league. I'll also mention that Charles Woodson won that award last year and Clay Matthews took second this year so there is no shortage of defensive studs. The Packers play a lot of a 2-4-5 defense with 5 DBs in the game so they like to have speed on the field. Sam Shields has played great as a rookie, Tramon Williams has learned so much from Woodson and the man he replaced Al Harris. Nick Collins is a ball-hawk, not quite as much of a play-maker like Polamalu, that just is always around the ball. The Packers secondary has had a huge affect on the games in the playoffs with at least one takeaway in each game  While Polamalu has that ability I do not see that from the rest of the Steelers secondary. Bryant McFadden and Ike Taylor are big but they haven't made a lot of plays to alter the outcome of the game. The advantages goes to the Packers 6 to the Steelers 4.

Special Teams

The Packers get the edge because they have a kicker in Mason Crosby who has been consistent for a few seasons and wasn't picked up mid-season like Shaun Suisham. Tim Masthay had one of the better punting games I've ever seen versus Devin Hester two weeks ago and gets the edge over who ever the Steelers guy is. I was to lazy to look up the Steelers guys because it really wouldn't have mattered anyways. Both teams don't really have anyone flashy that returns punts/kicks. Advantage Packer 6.5 to the Steelers 3.5.

Coaching

I'm not going to take much time here because Mike Tomlin is better than Mike McCarthy. Tomlin is a defensive minded coach with a great defense. McCarthy is an offensive minded coach with a great offense. Mike McCarthy gets help with a great defense led by a great defensive mind in Dom Capers which helps him. The difference is the experience that Tomlin has on the Super Bowl level. So the the edge goes to the Steelers 6 to the Packers 4.

Quarterbacks

Don't think that I forgot about these two pimp daddy's. Ben Roethlisberger can cement himself into the Hall of Fame with a win in this games. Big Ben makes me scratch my head because he just gets the job done time and time again. He is in his third Super Bowl and could have his third ring after this game. Cousin Money Mike made note of his playoff record and it is the second highest winning percentage next to only Bart Starr. He plays well in the playoffs and controls that game and limits his turnovers, which is how you win all games and that is why he has had so much success. Big Ben is just as his nickname says BIG, he is a load to take down and stands strong in the pocket. Then there is the hottest QB in the game during the playoffs in Aaron Rodgers. What doesn't he have going for him right now? While this next bit has nothing to do with his performance on the field I want to make it known that Erin Andrews and Aaron Rodgers have been dating for a little while now, so he literally has everything going for him. He looked flawless against the Falcons and played sharp against the Eagles as well. While Rodgers would never blame his play to an injury; he just wasn't the same after he got banged up on his TD run versus the Bears. But two weeks is plenty of time for someone to recover from a sore/bruised shoulder. Rodgers is quicker than Big Ben and often gets outside of the pocket and rushes for a few yards that keeps defenses having to have a spy on him. With such a deep arsenal of options to throw to he goes through his sequences extremely well and throws the ball where the defense allows him. His accuracy is also a strength completing 65.7% of his passing attempts during the season and 71% during the postseason. Big Ben was a 61.7% during the regular season and that percentage has dropped to 56.9% during the postseason. Until I did some research on these two I was going to give a slight edge to Big Ben, mainly because of his experience. The maturity of Aaron Rodgers can't go unmentioned either with the Brett Favre drama that the Packers got caught up in. So by the smallest of margins I give Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers the edge 5.1 to Big Ben's 4.9.

Final Results

Green Bay Packers 46.1

Pittsburgh Steelers 43.9

While you can take the points if you want to I tried to keep it as unbiased as possible I'm sure I favored the Packers. Many people will question my RB one, which by the way I initial had it as a push, I want it to be known that James Starks is leading the NFL postseason in average yards per game. The point gap that I have is very marginal anyways which goes to show how close this game is going to be. But while many have I favored the Packers so do the odds-makers in Vegas so I very well could be very accurate in what I have said. Even if the Steelers came out on top in my points game I was going to be picking the Packers anyways. My Super Bowl pick to win is the Packers over the Steelers. While I don't want to choose a score I will because I don't want to bitch out, so I'll take the Packers 24 Steelers 17. Go Pack Go!!!

PS- Cousin Money Mike funny how people were criticizing Cutler and you stood up for him saying that they were just jealous and they were at their house on the couch. Well guess what buddy your a Bears fan sitting at home on your couch coming at me because you are jealous. So you will join the likes of the people that were crashing down on Cutler if you text me. Suck on that, every time you text me something bad I'm going to respond with a Packers 21, Bears 14. Go day to you sir. Go Pack Go!!!